How might the future in the 2040s look and function? The future can take place in different contexts, in different places, both in and outside cities. What futures do we want to exist and how can we avoid futures we don't want to create?
With this investment, ShiftSweden wants to stimulate and develop the ability to look up and imagine different conceivable futures. Futures that can contribute to the mission of transforming Sweden, fossil-free and resource-conscious, into attractive and accessible living environments for everyone.
In order for such a transition to take place, new perspectives, working methods and solutions are needed in the sectors of community building and mobility. I Sverige Today, the civil engineering sector, including transportation accounts for a significant part of Sweden's carbon dioxide emissions, energy use, resource and land use.
The future visions must create interest, commitment and participation among different types of social actors from, for example, individuals and households, to business actors and organizations within the public sector.
Foresight is a tool that can help us understand what lies ahead and that helps us actively work to shape the future - and not just let it happen.
In foresight work, signals and analyzes are used as a starting point to identify changed behaviour, new business models, new services or other things that are about to emerge. Based on what is most important for the change we are facing, areas are then selected where in-depth scenarios are created. A signal of a possible change is something that is already happening today, and can be a clue for the future. The next step is to ask yourself questions like: “What kind of change does this signal represent? What direction does it take us in?” and "What trend, driving force or larger phenomenon is pushing us in that direction?". Signal plus drive equals foresight.
Read more about foresight
ShiftSweden welcomes a diversity of project proposals characterized by creative visionary futures:
- The future visions can be developed based on various methods in foresight, for example scenarios, three horizons framework, prototypes and speculative design or some other method anchored in foresight. They can be embodied in different ways, for example physically, digitally, as an experience or an environment. Various project proposals and methods within foresight are welcomed. Read more about speculative design here
- The future visions must be linked to one or more places, which can be physical, virtual, mobile or temporary. The places form the basis of our habitats. Experiences and interactions make a place significant for people's well-being, safety and accessibility. A place, whether physical or virtual, can also be understood and defined based on who owns, manages and uses it. But also through the legislation that regulates use and future change.
Note that the projects' future visions do not need to be limited by today's laws and regulations. - The projects can work with a future that is desirable but must also identify and relate to challenges that may arise along the way. The projects can also choose to depict a less desirable future that makes visible aspects that we must be able to handle or work to avoid completely. We like to see project that can challenge and provoke through the future visions that are developed. The visions must be developed based on contemporary signals and driving forces. The interesting thing is how these can then be interpreted and extended to the future. Imaginative and visionary ideas are welcomed to make tomorrow's values, norms and practices visible and possible.
- The projects must clearly describe and motivate the selected target group for the future vision. This can be anything from individuals and households, to organizations, companies, authorities, innovators, researchers, influencers.
- The projects must be based on ShiftSweden's mission and present future visions within at least two of the program's three shifts described below.
ShiftSweden's three shifts
ShiftSweden wants to create commitment and dialogue about what the attractive and accessible living environments of the future can look like and how the sustainable transition should take place. The program's mission is to transform Sweden, fossil-free and resource-conscious, into attractive and accessible living environments for everyone.
Three major shifts in civil engineering and mobility are needed for a changeover to be possible:
- From resource-demanding linear community building processes to sustainable and value-creating circular business models.
- From unsustainable transportation to a new freedom reform with competitive alternatives to individual car travel.
- From community planning in downspouts to an integrated ecosystem for the built environment and mobility.
The projects can choose to focus on one or both of the shifts within civil engineering and mobility, shifts 1 and 2, and must always contain aspects that additionally develop how the sectors are integrated into a common ecosystem, shift 3. The three shifts are described below.
From resource-demanding linear community building processes to sustainable and value-creating circular business models
In order to create sustainable attractive places and habitats, smarter ways of working with inclusion and participation in construction and planning processes need to be developed. The focus of the conversion needs to be shifted from individual buildings and facilities to entire neighborhoods or neighborhoods. It places new eligibility requirements on society's joint value creation. The life between the houses, the ecosystems, inclusion, security and health are becoming more important to take into account.
The built environment faces the challenge of changing in a short time from a system where resources are wasted to a sustainable use of resources. To go from building new, from new materials, in new places, to starting with considering the need and whether it can be met without building something new. Is it possible to rebuild, adapt or renovate? When demolishing, is it possible to reuse and recycle building materials? If the need to build new remains, then how should one build and design for long-term use, with minimal environmental and climate impact? Circular business models also need to consider resource and waste management and more efficient use of vehicles and machinery.
In the shift from a linear to a circular civil engineering sector, business logic, practices, regulations, norms and values will need to be challenged and developed.
From unsustainable transportation to a new freedom reform with competitive alternatives to individual car travel
Road transport today accounts for a large part of climate emissions and land use in urban areas. The car was originally seen as a path to increased freedom and welfare, but today is also a source of climate emissions, negative health aspects, congestion and lack of space in cities. With the car-borne society came sparser settlements, long commuting distances and complex travel chains. It has created accessibility for many, but not for all.
The changeover to freedom from fossil fuels therefore needs to be rooted in a changed understanding of what the transports are for, and how they are experienced. The focus should be people's access to work, education, care, service, leisure activities, experiences and social contacts. The journey is often a way to get there. But accessibility is also affected by how society is planned - where functions such as schools or commerce are located. Digital solutions and smart logistics systems can mean that we don't have to travel as much and that transportation can be more resource efficient.
There are many solutions that can enable a new freedom reform for sustainable accessibility. For example, increased opportunities to choose walking and cycling, electric scooters, pools with electric cars, carpooling, public transport, local logistics, remote work and new concepts that integrate different services. But they must be combined and developed to create accessibility for different groups in society.
In order to reach a sustainable future, social actors need to offer attractive and competitive solutions to individual car travel that encourage people to reflect on their behavior and to create new ones.
From community planning in downspouts to an integrated ecosystem for the built environment and mobility
Integrating housing and mobility is crucial to creating attractive and accessible living environments for all. Attempts have been made to integrate land use planning, built environment and mobility. But it remains a weak point in planning and development processes in practice.
I Sverige's responsibilities are divided vertically between national, regional and local, and horizontally between different sectors. The built environment and mobility ecosystems are based on different institutional frameworks and relationships between private and public domains.
Going forward, actors and perspectives need to be better integrated, both vertically and horizontally, in order to free up new ways of thinking and doing.
The future is not straightforward
It is impossible to predict where we will be in the 2040s. But society will look different to what it does today. Although signals and driving forces that exist today are the starting point for foresight, "something" from the future is required. And this something can be a desirable future but also an undesirable future, or something in between. Only if you take into account that we live in a changing world.
The global challenges are great, at the same time that societal development is accelerating. The transition to a fossil-free, sustainable society requires more than just investment in technical solutions, streamlining the vehicle fleet and the construction industry, or new products and services. It requires new innovative ways of working, collaborations and competitive solutions.
Never before has development been so fast and, for example, the entire mobility system with all its types of traffic is changing. We are reached by information and driving forces from society within, among other things, AI, self-driving vehicles, electrification, policy and regulations such as environmental zones and emission rights that affect how we travel. At the same time, in times of recession and crisis, it is noticeable how it affects different parts of society and the investments that need to be made for the transition. The construction industry, for example, has been hit hard with consequences such as an increased housing shortage and reduced employment. Crises can lead to both expected and unexpected changes for both households and organizations, which can also create room for adjustment.
On top of that, we face a series of societal challenges that are big and worrying – climate crisis, war, security political concerns, ideological shifts, pandemics and increased surveillance. Together they affect people's daily lives, privacy and security, create gaps and exclusion, health challenges and global concerns.
Going forward, climate adaptation will affect how we travel and live, perhaps we will receive climate refugees or migrants within the EU due to a changed climate. Something that has already affected us in many different ways is the covid-19 pandemic. The pandemic made us change our behavior, whether we wanted to or not. It changed the way we travel, work and live. Remote work gave many people the opportunity to work from home. And "away from home" could be in the home or, for example, on the farm. At the same time, it could also lead to isolation and involuntary exclusion.
Therefore, we welcome creative visionary ideas about the future that do not assume that tomorrow will be much like today, but more likely radically different.
Focus on climate and gender equality in all our investments
Impact Innovation is Sweden's innovation investment for the 2030s and is tasked with accelerating a sustainable transition for global competitiveness and societal benefit. Impact Innovation is an initiative of the Energy Agency, Formas and Vinnova. A strategic and long-term gathering of forces.
Vinnova is tasked with promoting sustainable growth and community development. Genom Agenda 2030, the countries of the world have agreed on a global agreement and understanding of what characterizes sustainable development. Through our efforts, we contribute to the global commitment to reach the goals.
In Inom Agenda 2030, Vinnova has particularly singled out climate and gender equality as two central sustainability perspectives to which our funded investments should contribute positively. Project financed by Vinnova are therefore expected to take special account of the climate and gender equality aspects.
One aspect that Vinnova follows up and assesses is whether both women and men take part in the grant in an equal way, participate in and have influence over the project.
Another aspect involves analyzing and deciding whether there are gender or gender aspects that are relevant to the project's problem area, solutions and utilization. In this the call for proposals that aspect is also assessed. From a foresight perspective, it is interesting to ask "whose future is it that we are creating a story around? Whose is it, and whose is it not?”.
Our work to contribute to the goals of Agenda 2030
Equal innovation - what it means for you who seek funding from us